By mid-2022, Sri Lanka's economic crisis transformed from abstract policy discussions into harsh daily reality for millions of citizens. Fuel queues stretching for kilometers, power cuts lasting hours, and empty supermarket shelves became the new normal. Against this backdrop, Bandula Gunawardena's "IMF Prakeerna Visadum" emerges as a crucial examination of the island nation's unfinished economic story and its controversial return to the International Monetary Fund.
The Context of Crisis
Gunawardena's work arrives at a pivotal moment in Sri Lankan history. The 2022 economic collapse wasn't merely a financial downturn—it represented a fundamental breakdown of economic governance that had been building for decades. The book positions Sri Lanka's IMF engagement not as a simple bailout narrative, but as part of a complex, ongoing economic transformation that demands deeper reflection and understanding.
The author's analysis goes beyond surface-level explanations of currency devaluation and debt restructuring. Instead, "IMF Prakeerna Visadum" explores the structural weaknesses that made Sri Lanka vulnerable to external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, and domestic policy missteps that preceded the crisis.
Historical Patterns and IMF Relations
One of the book's strengths lies in its historical perspective on Sri Lanka's relationship with international financial institutions. This wasn't the country's first encounter with IMF programs—previous engagements in the 1960s, 1970s, and 2000s offer valuable lessons about the effectiveness and limitations of externally imposed economic reforms.
Gunawardena examines how past IMF programs succeeded or failed in addressing Sri Lanka's fundamental economic challenges. The analysis reveals patterns of short-term stabilization followed by recurring crises, raising important questions about whether the current program will break this cycle or merely postpone the next economic reckoning.
Policy Prescriptions and Social Impact
The book critically evaluates the standard IMF prescription of fiscal consolidation, monetary tightening, and structural reforms. While acknowledging the necessity of these measures for macroeconomic stability, Gunawardena doesn't shy away from discussing their social costs. The analysis includes the impact on vulnerable populations, small businesses, and the middle class who bear the brunt of adjustment programs.
Particularly relevant is the discussion of how austerity measures affect public services, education, and healthcare—sectors crucial for long-term economic development. The author argues that successful economic recovery requires balancing immediate stabilization needs with investments in human capital and productive capacity.
Governance and Institutional Reform
"IMF Prakeerna Visadum" emphasizes that Sri Lanka's economic challenges aren't merely technical problems requiring technical solutions. The book highlights governance failures, institutional weaknesses, and political economy factors that contributed to the crisis. Without addressing these underlying issues, Gunawardena suggests, even the most well-designed economic programs may fail to deliver sustainable results.
The analysis includes examination of corruption, policy inconsistency, and the influence of vested interests on economic decision-making. These factors help explain why Sri Lanka, despite its educated population and strategic location, has struggled to achieve sustained economic growth and development.
Alternative Pathways and Future Prospects
Rather than simply accepting the current IMF program as inevitable, Gunawardena explores alternative approaches to economic recovery. The book discusses how other countries have navigated similar crises, examining both successful recoveries and cautionary tales of prolonged economic stagnation.
The author's vision extends beyond immediate crisis management to consider Sri Lanka's long-term economic trajectory. This includes discussions of export diversification, technological advancement, regional integration, and the development of competitive advantages in the global economy.
Relevance for Policy Makers and Citizens
The book serves multiple audiences, from policy makers and economists to ordinary citizens seeking to understand their country's economic predicament. Gunawardena's accessible writing style makes complex economic concepts understandable without oversimplifying the challenges involved.
For policy makers, the book offers insights into the political economy of reform implementation and the importance of building public support for difficult but necessary changes. For citizens, it provides context for understanding current hardships and the rationale behind unpopular policy measures.
Conclusion: An Unfinished Story
"IMF Prakeerna Visadum" reminds readers that Sri Lanka's economic story remains unfinished. The current crisis and IMF program represent a chapter, not the conclusion, of the country's economic development journey. Success will depend not only on implementing agreed reforms but also on addressing deeper structural and governance challenges that have plagued the economy for decades.
Gunawardena's work contributes to the essential national conversation about Sri Lanka's economic future, offering both critical analysis and cautious optimism about the possibility of building a more resilient and equitable economy.