Sri Lanka's political landscape faces a critical juncture as the National People's Power (NPP) government grapples with what analysts describe as the entrenched "Rajapaksa Deep State." Legal expert Kishali Pinto-Jayawardene warns that the NPP's apparent inability to comprehend and effectively counter this institutional network risks reopening dangerous pathways to communalism and racism that have historically plagued the nation.
The Deep State Challenge
The concept of a "deep state" refers to networks of influence that operate within government institutions, often persisting beyond electoral changes. In Sri Lanka's context, the Rajapaksa family's decades-long political dominance has created institutional loyalties and informal power structures that extend far beyond formal political positions. These networks, built through patronage systems and strategic appointments, continue to wield influence even when the family is not directly in power.
Pinto-Jayawardene's analysis suggests that opposition parliamentarians are employing sophisticated strategies, presenting themselves as democratic actors while potentially harboring more divisive agendas. The metaphor of "wolves in sheep's clothing" underscores the deceptive nature of this political maneuvering, where surface-level democratic rhetoric may mask deeper sectarian motivations.
Historical Context of Communal Politics
Sri Lanka's post-independence history has been marked by periodic eruptions of communal violence and ethnic tensions. The country's civil war, which lasted nearly three decades, was rooted in ethnic divisions that were often exploited by political actors for electoral gain. The Rajapaksa era, particularly during Mahinda Rajapaksa's presidency, was characterized by strong Sinhala nationalist rhetoric and policies that marginalized minority communities.
The end of the civil war in 2009 under Mahinda Rajapaksa's leadership created a complex legacy. While bringing military victory, it also entrenched certain nationalist narratives that continue to influence political discourse. The subsequent political careers of various Rajapaksa family members have maintained these ideological threads, creating what critics describe as an institutional culture resistant to pluralistic governance.
NPP's Governance Challenges
The NPP, led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, came to power promising systemic change and anti-corruption governance. However, the party's relative inexperience in managing complex state institutions may be exposing vulnerabilities in confronting established power networks. The challenge extends beyond simple political opposition to encompass bureaucratic resistance, media influence, and informal networks of power that operate across various state institutions.
Critics argue that the NPP's approach has been too focused on formal political processes while underestimating the informal mechanisms through which the Rajapaksa network maintains influence. This includes relationships within the military, police, judiciary, and civil service that were cultivated over years of political dominance.
Opposition Coalition Dynamics
The formation of opposition coalitions against the NPP government has drawn comparisons to historical alliances, including the unlikely partnership between ideologically different nations during World War II. However, Pinto-Jayawardene's analysis suggests that such comparisons may be misleading, as they obscure the potentially divisive nature of current opposition strategies.
The concern is that opposition parties, in their efforts to challenge NPP governance, may resort to communal mobilization tactics that have proven effective in Sri Lankan politics historically. This could involve appealing to ethnic or religious identities rather than focusing on policy differences, thereby reopening wounds that the country has struggled to heal.
Institutional Vulnerabilities
The persistence of deep state influences highlights broader questions about institutional reform in Sri Lanka. Despite constitutional changes and electoral transitions, certain power structures appear remarkably resilient. This includes not only formal appointments but also informal networks of influence that span across state institutions.
The NPP's challenge lies in identifying and dismantling these networks while maintaining democratic norms and avoiding the kind of authoritarian overreach that could legitimize opposition criticism. This requires a sophisticated understanding of how power operates beyond formal political structures.
Future Implications
The stakes of this political confrontation extend beyond immediate governance issues. Sri Lanka's fragile post-conflict reconciliation process remains vulnerable to political manipulation. The country's economic recovery, following its recent financial crisis, also depends on maintaining social stability and avoiding the kind of divisive politics that could undermine investor confidence and international support.
Pinto-Jayawardene's warning about the risks of renewed communalism reflects broader concerns about democratic backsliding in the region. The challenge for the NPP is to develop more effective strategies for countering deep state influence while strengthening democratic institutions and maintaining the inclusive governance that Sri Lanka needs for sustainable development.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the NPP can successfully navigate these challenges or whether Sri Lanka risks a return to the divisive politics that have hindered its progress toward becoming a truly pluralistic democracy.